Senin, 03 Juni 2013

Best way with Visioner for Corporates to avoid many risks and default cases of Credit Risk for their Debts on Survival Rate to be Long Life Business and have a One Big Quantum Leap Ahead



By : Edmond F. La’lang (economic and natural environment observer)


         Let me add to give another way of some new suggestion on perspectives to used of the biological and psychological ways of thinking about the case of debt of a company. Life is a game with a lot of risks in addition to benefits and advantages that can be gained from the ability, achievement, creativity, innovation and business management professionals better. Risk will always be an open market is a market in which more and more competitors, the bigger share of the market, more and more consumers to choose the product of a company and the various regulations made by the government in which the company operates. And of course the dynamics of natural law will always cause fluctuations in turmoil even to be prevented before they occur with the Early Warning System, with a swift soon to anticipate the problems and market risk and business risk.


          Supposedly the composition of corporate debt to its capital structure to keep it safe from the risks of macroeconomic volatility, fluctuations in the stock market index, foreign exchange rate, commodity market fluctuations (and complement raw materials for manufacturing and mining corporations), changes in the prime interest rate and the commercial rate to cost of funds, inflation rate (CPI and PPI), profitability, prospective business enterprise, the ability to compete and a variety of product excellence, marketing mix strategy, service, cost of manufacturing and administration and so on. Fatal error at most companies (banks, manufacturing and services) is to assume that the price level of the stock and assets and also commodity prices from a mining company can be a collateral to obtain a bank loan that has multiple leveraging is the very real risk of a variety of market risks in the form of economic turbulencies, crisis and recession.  

         Capital structure that makes sense and being cautious is the capital of 60-80% and accounts payable around 20-40%. If the ratio of debt to capital increase, the risk of default also will be bigger and should not be played with a variety of financial mathematical simulations, except by way of over-leveraging and reducing risk simply by mathematical and statistical calculations with a risk free way that it gives a sheer burden of risk debt naturally from the threat of external risks his company. For that we need a careful analysis and calculation of the various natural influences in the form of multi-variant calculations with non-linier regression as 2 – 3 dimension calculations by incorporating a variety of indicators of biological, psychological, tastes and interests of consumers (market driven and market driving) and fierce competition in its market share as well as the new products and new competitors  to make a good, reasonable, prudently and rationally of “Natural Free Risk”.     
     

         Companies that take a lot of debt with a smaller capital structure will experience a greater risk of default, despite having supported by a variety of sophisticated financial mathematics and risk management on various Financial Ratios according to the rules Basel I to Basel III. The risk in this case is the inability to pay the debt, because the interest rate risk of debt, particularly of a commercial character in the form of a floating interest rate. Problems currently faced by the U.S. and European countries as well as various financial and manufacturing companies are leveraging the use of exaggeration to be bubble stock price and the value of its assets without taking into account the potential risk of economic turmoil that will occur in the future, only simulations using mathematical and statistical calculations alone. Many economic crisis since the Great Depression has killed millions of companies to experience huge losses and even bankruptcy both in banking, manufacturing, services and other financial services should experience a variety of internal and external risks, due to ignorance of the natural dynamics of the process that will always occur in a system of living organisms, either individually or range of human creation in the course of business of the company's life cycle. 


         Likewise experienced by developed countries, the U.S. and Europe, as well as less appropriate in managing debt for development, also to save thousands of corporate banking, manufacturing, property and insurance back to health in the context of "Too Big to Fail" by way of bailout, stimulus Quantitative Easing and the truth is not an effective and efficient even add to the debt burden of the country itself. It is different from the way the country is almost bankrupt Iceland but was able to quickly get out of the debt crisis and economic recession, because of not wearing liberal economic thinking but a way to let the Austrian economy private companies fend for themselves as a result of a variety of their own mistakes or are natural selection to survive. So of course this ease the burden on the government budget Iceland to immediately help companies that are still strong enough without having to provide facilities that pamper company that has mismanaged the business and his own debt without providing helping for bailout and QE policy.


           So that, maybe there is another approach to really know how the risk will be come and influence your business, investment and trading activities time by time that always human can not know and realized exactly what really happen in the future. Let visit my blog to know and maybe useful for your business strategic planning for 1 - 25 years. Or like George Soros says, he walk 6 months in the front of the curve that he really know what happen in financial market and real sector long before.  


Visit some of interesting blog :

1. Opportunities and Risks in Corporate Business
By: Edmond F. La'lang (economic and environmental observers)
In terms of financial market that contained human nature in the face of risks that will arise in every activity of life is Risk Averse, people who always avoid risk and Risk Taker, people who are happy at risk and those who take care in the face of risk.
3. Comments to Caveat on investment : model risk creates liability towards extreme
By Chitro Majumdar on May 29, 2012 8:12 AM
http://bioeco-ronmentblogspotcom.blogspot.com/2012/07/comments-on-caveat-on-investment-model.html

4. Mathematic knowledge is not really know about how the Economic and Business Life Cycle Mechanism will be work in reality world
http://bioeco-ronmentblogspotcom.blogspot.com/2012/07/mathematic-knowledge-is-not-really-know.html

5. Bio Risk Management :  How can Corporate Strategic Planning that able to prevent or avoid the Market Risk, Business Risk and another Risks on Competition, Turbulencies, Crisis and Recession
http://bioeconomicnatural.blogspot.com/2013/05/how-can-corporate-strategic-planning.html

7.  This blog purpose is to provide an insight and understanding of the importance of the role and application of Science Biology on various aspects of human activity, including Economics - Business, Green Technology, Social, Political and Environment for the Future of Human Life  http://bioeconomica.blogspot.com/



Foot note :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universe Law (Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

        


Let see Monthly and Weekly 
Forecast on  Forex, World Indexes 
and Commodities Market









Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :   +62081-553089521 
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Facebook : Edmond F. La'lang     https://www.facebook.com/

Jumat, 12 April 2013

Bio Risk Management : How can the Countries and Corporates Strategic Planning that able to prevent or avoid the Credit Risk, Market Risk, Business Risk and another Risks on Competition, Turbulencies, Crisis and Recession



By : Edmond F. La'lang (economic and natural environment observer)



Bio-Risk Management is how to managed your many risks in your business risk and market risk to anticipated on up and down of business and macro economic fluctuations from time to time to growing your business in healthy condition. This is an Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Bioeconomic Natural Method that really good to get an accurate and good prediction for midterm (monthly-smesterly) and longterm (1 – 10 years) on macro economic and business sectoral (include financial investment). This is a new paradigm, vision and mindset to avoid any risk in the market. Please read and have enjoy to get something meaningful for your business activities.

             Risk has always been a major concern to treasurers, but is it true that in recent years bank counterparty risk has risen to the top of list ? Risk is something natural from a variety of activities, actions and strategic planning of investments made by banks, both in terms of intermediation in the real and financial sectors, including a variety of investment banking on financial markets, Risk is the rise and fall of the economy in the form of aggregate market risk and business risk of micro economic, especially the real sector which is going to greatly affect on macro economic conditions and micro economic rather influenced by macro economics. If the micro economic is good, then it will also affect macro economic conditions, although of course the macro economic policies influence the micro economics. So they are interdependent and influence, but at least the decision maker of fiscal and monetary policies that will surely be based on micro economic condition and dynamics of its own.
  
          With such a variety of risks and issues will be formed from a variety of interplay between the real and financial sectors in the dynamics of micro and macroeconomic economy in the form of a time series graph rise and fall of various micro-economic activities. In my opinion, bad and good economic conditions demonstrated by various real market fluctuations and financial greatly influenced by the laws and forces of nature that also directly affects the biological and psychological condition of both businesses and the community as customers. Obviously with knowing early signal of micro and macro economic conditions in the medium and long term, then banks and corporates including the treasury strains must understand these fluctuations in the form of Preventive Ways to a number of criteria as an Early Warning System like you are racing in an F1 and MotoGP competition to always will be aware of the ups and downs of a terrain contours and bends in the race conditions. If this is a concern in a variety of Strategic Planning and Action Plan Investment banking sector, other financial and companies in the real sector and other services, the many risks and problems can be avoided by adjusting the conditions and to elimininated the bad effect of biocycle fluctuations and biorythmic strains of micro and macro economics.

          Often decision makers from both government and the private sector always rely on various economic assumptions (which is not necessarily true because it's just hope the planner alone) and is supported by a variety of mathematical and statistical calculations instruments are actually just linear (rigid and static) and one-dimensional for evaluation, assesment and predict human economic activities that actually dimensionless non-linear and higher dimensional (2-3 dimensions) So there will always be a variety of major revisions and adjustments because on misleading and mismatching to the predictions of business strategy planning, as well as government policy makers in this its fiscal (treasury) and monetary outlook economic will always change because they can not be familiar with the strains of micro-fluctuations and macro economic conditions are right, good and true. So actually a lot of macroeconomic policies often do not match the needs of businesses in the real sector and causing a lot of disappointment financial market players, because the assumption is always misses macroeconomic indicators with data and facts on the ground to keep and need to be revised again. 



See on my blog about this :

1.  Opportunity and Risk in Business

2.  Uncertainty and Threat for Business Life Cycle

   http://bioeconomicnatural.blogspot.com/2012/03/uncertainty-and-threat-for-business.html

3. Comments to Caveat on investment : model risk creates liability towards extreme

4. *The Death of Economic ?*

The Answer is Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic  

5. Mathematic knowledge is not really know about how the Economic and Business Life Cycle Mechanism will be work in reality world    http://bioeco-ronmentblogspotcom.blogspot.com/2012/07/mathematic-knowledge-is-not-really-know.html

6. Implications of Financial Tsunami (subprime mortgages) as trigger to the World Recession     http://econobusinessdynamic.blogspot.com/     

7. How to used Biologic Science with Biocycle and Biorhytmic to really know about whole of Economic and Business Life Cycle Mechanism in the Real World    http://bioeco-ronmentblogspotcom.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-to-use-biologic-science-with.html

8. How to used BiologicScience with Biocycle and Biorhytmic to really know about whole of Economic andBusiness Life Cycle Mechanism in the Real World  

 

Foot note :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).


Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universe Law (Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.
        

Let see Monthly and Weekly 

Forecast on  Forex, World Indexes 
and Commodities Market


Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :   +620838-49705857 
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top
Facebook : Edmond F. La'lang     https://www.facebook.com/