Selasa, 13 Maret 2012

Lessons from Economic Financial Disaster

By : Edmond F. La’lang

“Learn from this chaotic, national banks we can pick a few things about risk management. Do not ever think that risk management is only stop on risk management certification exam is now spring”.
I think, diploma / certificate and the science is supporting 10-20% of one's success. This is a misguided mindset that the successful person is viewed from the level of formal education via the intelligent quotient (IQ) and have not touched the EQ (emotional quotient) and SQ (spiritual quotient) which actually plays an important role for the career, achievements and self-control and the risk of life and the right business. Let us learn to live by exploiting the biological sciences to economic and business in the form of bio-economic, bio-management, bio-risk, bio-natural and bio-dynamic of an integrated world market but full of turbulence and volatility risk of market panic. Studies on bio's is preventive in various aspects of life, so people in each of its activities including business can always be easily avoided the risk of natural (natural) and man-made systemic (physical).

With the familiar strains of biorhytmic human activity, then we can get to know aspects of psychological, mental, economic and human performance, when it will rise and fall, when it will happen turmoil, turbulence, crisis and recession. With proper time management then we can make a precise prediction correctly. This of course can be a "benchmark" and a reference for CEOs and management in setting the strategic management, execution of decision making, action plans, where the allocation of funds, when borrowed, the amount of the loan according to its capital structure, when the expansion, when ordering raw materials and auxiliary materials, when to increase production, expand market share and is quite familiar with the movement of fuel prices, minerals and other commodities that are important to industrial activity, business and investment for market risk, business and business fluctuations can be identified accurately in the form of "early warning system" a good and correctly or according to Soros' run ahead of the curve "that we can take the management policy for preventive action before the occurrence of turbulence, turbulence, crisis and recession to reduce the incidence of risk and failed to pay, even to take gaining of risk and threat that will come.

The economic crisis also has taken the lives of the Tribune group which has 8 major newspapers (Los Angeles Times) and 23 television stations on 8 December 2008 has pleaded with his voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy as highly indebted to USD 12.97 billion with assets of USD 7, 6 Billion. According to the Tribune owner, Sam Zell "In fact we and the rest of this country have little ability to see where the economy works and how the performance of our businesses face a recession." Here we can see that the ability of economics and management has not been able to fully know the rhythm and cycles of the economy as good and right so to provide early warning to his businesses to anticipate in terms of new economics can only go "behind the curve instead of ahead of the curve" . So of volatility and risk of the economy, business and the market will not likely be known early "certainty (certainty)" of the coming disaster crisis and recession, so just take cover as he consoled himself that it was an "uncertainty (uncertainty)," which can not controlled or managed properly for business performance to "avoid risks".

“The actual risk management go hand in hand with ongoing business with the endless variety of derivatives”.
My advice is the risk management needs to incorporate elements of time, the psychology of the market and business dynamics are always evolving and has a rhythm of fluctuating according to the character of its business into the calculation of risk in the form of mathematical dimension 2-3.

“The formula derived more and more banking business which will appear more and more also the potential risk of birth variations”.
I think this is true, because in addition to the complexity of management will also interact with each other according to its derivative tissues. Economics, management, industry, especially financial and accounting should learn more about genetic science, because many menderivatif (lower) range of products utuk professionally managed business and worldwide. Surely must know the "state of the art" of red yarn network correctly, accurately and well according to Mendel's laws as well as aspects of biology, bio-chemical and bio-physics since they are always interacting according to the network and the system as well as humans as biological creatures, which also contains elements -element of bio-chemical and bio-physics.

“Not to mention the risk of cross derivatived variations. This risk can not be prevented”.

In my view, it could be home by knowing the characteristics and dynamics so that we can know clearly the strains bioritmik fluctuations and to exit into the safe with a risk of less than 10%, where we can know exactly when it will go up, when it will come down, when be self reinforcing (starting here market participants do not need to be greedy and forcing herself to make a profit at about the peak of growth) and when will catastroph (as well as market participants in an orderly manner with no need to panic, and jostled (Crowded) wants to exit the market as a trickle that can cause panic and many victims who do not need to happen, so market participants will be adults and to refrain from excessive greed, like the MotoGP and F1 racing when it's around the corner or peak, had to use standard brakes to avoid slipping off the track. Prediction and referrals to "buy on strength or short selling" is often made by passionate and greedy without knowing clearly the direction and trend correctly and accurately.

“In every Bank Indonesia (Central Bank) policies must be shall study it carefully so it does not fire beard later in life”.

Often we are including BI always too late to anticipate the problems that exist, let alone to prevent precisely with the early warning system. Latest case of bankruptcy of Century Bank in the middle of November 2008, which reports in September and October 2008, CAR was 14.5%, but when you lose clearing in the middle of November, having examined the BI, it turns CAR has - 2.3% with a loss of about USD 1.5 Trillion to be in the bailout JPS Rp. 2 trillion, not to mention the loss of customers who were deceived with fictitious derivative products. The same thing happened to a RB in Lampung, which has harmed its customers amounted to Rp1, 0 trillion. So at best we only problem solving like the bailout or strict supervision after suffering losses, incorrect placement of investments and the number of victims of fraud. If market participants are adults and can control ourselves as well as his conscience and not have to speculate without the precautionary 2an, disaster would panic and disaster risk can be minimized by systematic and well planned in the long term.

This certainly can reduce the frequent occurrence of crises, recession, depression, fall of the stock, at least we can extend the time of occurrence with the always growing and finansil real economic activity in a healthy mind and body without the need for a lot of cholesterol intake, alcohol, Viagra and Ecstacy in overdose, for the economic life of individuals, companies, countries and the world become more healthy and lasting.

“National bank must have education to customers. Not only the benefits or advantages that need to be delivered to customers but also potential risks”.
Clearly if we want to profit and win big, we should also face the risk of large losses (High Return High Risk), where instead of banks and securities actors, often also not aware of risks that may arise, such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes. Surely the U.S. as the Temperatures of Linear Risk Management World, the tsunami finansil never included in the calculation of unexpected and economical linear.

“This is the embodiment of good corporate governance. Transparency. As a result customers are able to understand honey and venom of a product. Risk exposure”.

In my opinion, Good Corporate Governance (GCG) is necessary for the company did not experience the potential risk, failure and bankruptcy, but still can exist, profitable and healthy expands to grow into larger and more advanced. Transparency is necessary to open all health conditions, advancement and progress of company profiles for stakeholders, stockholders and prospective customers to prevent moral hazard as well as a reference for them to give financial and investment support. But once again that if the company is unable to recognize and prevent the occurrence of a risk of loss, failure to pay, moral hazard, unprudential and less competitive, then the operational and systemic risk can occur unnoticed by the CEO and management especially for customers who lay sedated and only winds of heaven enticing promotions. So that customers are often misled and did not know honey and toxins from products offered finansil banking, securities, investment banking and hedge funds. And one more important that management needs to have a reliable filter to determine and assess the survey data, empirical and mathematical calculations whether incoming data is really valid or needs to be revised. Began starting from microeconomic data analyst, macro economic and financial market data, taking and analyzing accounting data to be forwarded to the management and the CEO have been completely accurate and valid order to perform the assessment and desicion making a reliable investment in strategic planning.

That has not been recognized by economists including business people are always engrossed and carried away with "reliability financial mathematics calculation of linear as first dimension", while the nature of growth, the expected value as well as many aspects of human psychological dimension 2 - 3 - 4 ignored by financial and risk management, and perhaps new marketing management, included psychographic and spiritual aspects of marketing to know more detailed and accurate information about the condition of needs and wants of customers, changes and market dynamics, psycho-social conditions of the markets and the theory of market environment.

Foot note :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universe Law (Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.


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Edmond F. La'lang
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