Selasa, 13 Maret 2012

Implications of Financial Tsunami (subprime mortgages) as trigger to the World Recession

By : Edmond F. La’lang

A muse for the global business economy, including the stocks, forex and commodities market to not repeat the same mistake. Do not climb the mountain with high speculation and more greedy,but hike the hill with good and strong fundamental driven to prevent disaster from recurring economic crisis like multi dimensional crisis in Indonesia (1997-1998) and financial sub-prime mortgages in USA (2007) that have a big domino effect to global economy.

Domino Effect and Risk Management as Unprudential Mistakes

Year 2007 is the yeat of world economic upheaval caused by the “subprime mortgages” in property sector from lower middle class in the USA that many countries have failed to pay property credit. Futher spread to financial sector, particulary international investment banking assets that buy subprime mortgages as well to derived to degress. According to me that Multi Level Marketing business is similar to a tiered network and marketed worldwide, particulary in Europe, Japan and other countries. With this subprime borrowers default, it has caused great lossess in derivative giant about US$ 15.4 trillion that has been experiences by many institutions investment banking, securities, general banking, insurance, hedge fund, corporates and retail investors worldwide. This has bankrupted many property companies, especially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as huge loses at Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Merryl Lynch, Goldman Sachs and many more US giant companies financial. Peak turbulence and turmoil is the subprime crisis occurred in July 2008 with collapse of Lehman Brothers Inc. Which assets approximately to USD 640 billion has experienced tremendous loss because misallocation managed of funds without good risk management and prudential banking, where in fact of the funds in the subprime mortgages and derivative until 10 levels. Lehman has forgotten the principle of “do not put your eggs in one basket” is very urgent in the management of high risk apetite business.

Many observers abd economist have said that among Wall Street, including the CEO of Lehman Brothers was negligent, foolish and greedy of doing business without professional management. The effect of this subprime crisis began to spread to world stock market, including Dow Jones (Djia), which has reached its peak in April 2007 at 14.425 points and dragged the whole world stock markets with more than 50 % correction and certainly will continue to weaken toward the starting point of the resurrection Djia in 1992 which is at its 4,250 point (early era of President Bill Clinton) can even reach the level of 2,000 – 4,000 if to the severe deflation and Obama was unable to provide a healthy economic recovery (if economist only perform a variety of conservative and linier think to the macro economic policy as well as the fate of main world stock indexes) but maybe fall again in “Double Dip Recession”. The panic in stock markets is also exarbating the loses of world financial sector about US$ 20.55 trillion.

With catastrophic of the world stock market, especially in US and Europe in addition to large losses in any level of economic agents, retails investors, including retires put their funds in stock marlet. This loss will add to the increasing number of poor people with decline purchasing power also. And the effect is USA,Europe and Japan began sink to the problem of default debts that face in Greek.Iceland, Portugese and maybe to Spain, Italy, France and England if they don’t have a smart solution for their high debt. For problem solving, the EU have help with bail out with huge funds and from IMF and of course cut their budget for efficiency. This same condition that face by USA with much more huge debt on US$ 14.1 trillion debt and maybe want to more highly debt in a couple years to cover the deficit of their government budgeting and the Fed still give QE 2 to the financial market that means to create jobs and trigger to the economy recovery with lower interest rate. And QE 3 will be come after QE 2 ? This is difficult condition to do that without much more jobs to reduce high unemployment.


Footnote :


         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).
 

         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and 


Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521 
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What the Real Thing and Competencies of Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic

By : Edmond F. La’lang (economic and environment observer)

        Bio-economic method is a breakthrough and innovation to emerging trends Biology XXI century as the century that has been predicted by Prof. John Naisbitt in his book Global Paradox (1992) that the world will experience a trend with the use of many brand name products based on biology and prediction Prof. Smith (MIT), which states that in 2020-2030 will be the pinnacle of Biology century until the year 2050 to 2075 as the successor of the Information Age (1995-2025) who coined by Alvin Toffler. Furthermore, Prof.. Smith states that in biology this century many professions that will be lost, such as teachers, doctors, account executive of brokerage firms and many more, perhaps even by a commercial pilot flying car. Then I with a base of Fisheries biologist with experience as a surveyor of land measurement that is often living in the forest, learned a lot about the life of the natural environment full diversity of biological diversity that we should preserve. The survey results of mapping this region which is supported by socio-economic survey will be made of a book analyzing the data and facts to the provincial government. East Java and the District Government and the City (I have to write a book about 20 pieces) and in Jakarta on environmental capacity analysis, survey disaster prone areas and the mountain of fire, watershed stream survey and site plan layout design in a particular area.

        With the support of the process of learning and experience from the base of fisheries science, management science of business administration (industrial management), land, environment, spatial and socio-economic data and climate data region (range 50-10 years) are certainly the same as feasibility studies and analysis environmental impact and of course with the support of some theological writings as well as faith and belief in God according to the teachings of my religion. With a variety of complaints the business world and experts in the above predictions, and experience following the stock of gold, stocks and forex, then we are compelled to provide a solution for economic science was no longer able to predict macro-economic indicators, the emergence of various crises since the 1997-1998 . This is a chronological process of discovery Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic methods us through the various processes of learning and experience.

        This methods as one good way to help the economics become more realistic, reliable and capable in responding to various economic problems that emerged in the era of globalization and free trade, which so far economists have always revise various economic indicators and the inability to provide solutions for improving people's welfare, production and the level of equity security of an economic policy that does not dissolve in the quality and the greedy capitalistic economy and unfair to small economic group. So economics is in reality only makes economic policy for the benefit of national and global business conglomerate with no want to know how to lift and give economic empowerment that is more fair and democratic to all levels of society for us to be strong economic fundamentals in the long run, during which it is based economy depletion of natural resources, consumer and financial driven economy which was often made a quick hot (overheating), froth (bubble) and susceptible to shocks, turbulence and economic crisis with hot money.

         The new economic experts like Professor Paul Ormerod with Butterfly methods Economy, George Soros with the method of Reflections, Fessant and A. Tannous method Econo-physics, Prof.. Smith's method and Systemic Organizations. Nouriel Roubini with the method for graph Standard and Poor's and my own (Edmond) by reading, smelt and insight from the analysis of stock index charts and forex (foreign exchange) nationally and globally capable of precise prediction of the macro economic performance without having to use econometric methods in economics , monetary and development economics. And the man said "many roads to Rome" in the sense that we can know without having to wear the economic performance of economics that we think is outdated and no longer able to answer the mechanisms and dynamics of the real economy of national and global society at the level of free competition is hard, technology innovation competition products that are sigmoid and spirals, the fast-changing consumer tastes and tend to be chaoistic (very aware of marketing experts), so it must use methods of Psychographic and Spiritual Marketing for can guess exactly where the flow needs and wants consumers who always follow the various changes and business dynamics fast-changing and the methods of stock market business, commodities and forex namely Financial Astronomical that can predict accurately the movement of the index fluctuation of composition and motion of the planets and the Milky Way galaxy solar system billions of stars that are always moving in space and time.

        Therefore we use the base biological sciences and the natural environment to learn about various movements of stock indices, commodities, foreign exchange and macro-economic indicators (only not been able to read the exact and precise micro-economics in the short term, but quite able to chart the price movements within a period of 1 month upwards, but if emiteen Big Caps and Blue Chips are quite capable of a daily and weekly). With the support of biological system, open mind and thinking (faith and obedience to God), an open heart (saying loving to others, the natural environment and the universe), open-hand ( want to socialize and friendly to other included up national and global communities) and an open pocket (to sharing the benefits to the poor as the core of our system of Modern Socialism in Modern Society).

         So I think this is the Road and Bridge Gold for humans to better understand the life of religious, economic, social, and environmental politics in a more clean, honest, no conflict of interest, peace and harmony to humanity and love of the environment in a more sensible and civilized without the nature of the selfish, greedy, snobbish and full of life driven to be excessive in consumerism, glamorous, luxurious, corrupt, hedonistic eat the expense of others and damage the natural environment which is getting worse. Many examples are quite reliable for the bio-economy in a visionary to predict events (think hundreds of millions of people have a different vision in personal, business and economics to an incident of economic sequencies, social, political and environment that ultimately must be perceived as a risk which leads to loss, failure, defeat and bankruptcy that everything must be judged from a symbol of hedonistic "CAPITAL MONEY" that often lead to injustice and tyranny in its implementation. Many of our predictions are correct in size parameters (magnitude) and time of occurrence of the natural environment , economics and politics.

In 1998, I conducted a survey measuring and mapping in the City Bondowoso (East Java) on the contour area, land use, land capability, economic and social climate of the region. In our book of advice on environmental conditions and land use contour excisting about danger of flooding and landslides to the downstream (after 5 years, there was a flood disaster Situbondo City in 2001 by the outbreak of the Dam River), about the prediction of urban spatial structure of Surabaya and Jakarta since 1997 by the settlements that are horizontal (not vertical in the form Apartments), the ratio of open land and parks to homes and buildings knstruksi then one day there will be a big flood (inundation) in Surabaya and Jakarta and in 2002, there was major flooding in Jakarta who drowned almost the entire city of Jakarta (6 meters of water in the vicinity of Brass and Sudirman Street), since 1993-1994, we were reminded to The Smiling General for caution in the management of economic, social and political and immediately resigned in 1996, because there will be a crisis that dragged the property and manufacturing banking credit turmoil.

After 3 years proven to have occurred over the economic crisis of 1997-1998 is superb. Similarly, the polemics between Lapindo case of natural disasters or Lapindo Brantas as the cause. In our opinion, yes earthquake makes cracks in the crust of the earth's horizontal instead of drilling, so many experts geology and mining predicts that after reaching the level of bursts of 25,000 cubic meters / sec it will stop immediately and apologize followed by the many prayers of the paranormal and istigotzah of hundreds thousand of peoples. What really happens is supported by a variety of prayer ? Certainly there is something wrong with this, why God answered her prayer is often not, but if tribute, worship and bribe to central and local authorities, would be granted by way of corruption is not it ? So, let us repent and do not always hypocrisy in religion (ritual alone said. Gus Dur), but in behavior is always doing things contrary to their religious law and always run away from reality and take refuge in religion clause article that God is Forgiving, though as bad as anything including many echoed by people in my religion.) I said, no, and when discussions on the Mercury Radio Surabaya, I say definitely going to get to 150.000m3/second, it happens too. Similarly to the movements of the index stock index, the value of rupiah, inflation indicator, SBI and global levels as well as USD / JPY, USD / DM (Germany before join with Euro) and USD / CHF, we are often instructed to move up or down depending on the strains that have occurred biorhytmic fluctuations without having to use a variety of economic data and mathematical calculations are very complicated but not on target, while business people and economists do not just stare there was a disaster warning of economic crisis including the 2007-2008 economic recession by the subprime mortgages that we have predicted since 2003 at the inception of the Iraq war.

Only God does not permit successful human use of this natural and supernatural forces of their own interests that generate money and power, because it raises "Power tend to corrupt, abuse of power, conflict of interest and insider trading" because it had already know the information from internal sources, while we of the universe created by God. Because we want to also do business and must not use the power of the order, then we are only allowed to wear way similar in the ocean surf is always choppy and dynamic fit system water or in air turbulence as aerodynamic system. Believe it or not, it has happened and do not pretend that it is negative and even occult mysticism. But just since the economic crisis of 1997-1998, has been many of us, including professionals and business people even go to a psychic, healer and use the genie to guide and predict the fate of himself and his business, not playing is not especially confident in their Lord in meeting the challenges of this harsh life.

Footnote :


         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet ** (Astronomical).
 

         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.



Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and 

Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521 
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top

Untuk dalam bahasa Indonesia kunjungi blog ini : 
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Monetary - Fiscal Policy and its Implication in anticipation of and Reduce the Economic Crisis 1997 - 1998 in Indonesia

By : Edmond F. La'lang


         Many passengers on the ship in this panic turned out to look for opportunities in the narrowness. So for us to survive against all external shocks in this globalization era is the vision, thought, concept and behavior of complex biological to solve various complex problems of internal and external conditions. This shock may be the emergence of global investor distrust of the management and conduct of business and government that no longer in accordance with the principles of economics and management, business administration (Good Corporate Governance and Clean Government) which raises the number of moral hazard, fraud and mismanagement of other well technological surprises many kinds of products of goods, services and culture. So when the crisis emerged in the form of monetary and economic crisis of confidence in business management, economics and government, the foreign investors in the money market, stock and real sector rollicking leave the country in a position to remove its currency with hard currency, panic selling in the market capital, attract all current accounts and deposits in the banking and securities, and closed the factory that ends "Capital Flight" massive. 

         This is what we know as the "Impact of Systemic Crisis", in which nearly all the real financial and business institutions will be affected by a large and heavy, so that the economic system, business and finansil will experience a severe contraction that causes severe turbulence and crisis, causing economic growth to be negative. It also looks at Japan in crisis and long-term deflation and also in 2007/2008 in the USA (the sub-prime mortgages) and European (Greek case almost by default). Only developed countries do not use the services of the IMF in debt, but issued a number of government securities in various forms to make bailout package, stimulus, quantitative easing and aggressive Also cut rates again to stimulate economic growth, thereby becoming a heavy burden and must state borne by the next generation, like the case of the banking bailout Rp. 650 Trillion like in Indonesia (1997-1998).

         So let us manage the state finances in a more healthy and appropriate corporate capital structure with strong economic management, sound business, creative, innovative, efficient and effective in promoting the country as well as companies to avoid moral hazard, fraud, ignorance, carelessness, negligence and greed in managing the economy and state finances and business. Do not want big fast, but full fat is fat, sluggish and unhealthy that produce low competitiveness, the fragility of the financial structure and poor economic performance and vulnerability to internal and external economic shocks. This is what should be a benchmark for economic fundamentals and not merely macroeconomic indicators of economic planners often make more confident and ultimately much owed by only based on DSR to GDP ratio and the amount of deficit to GDP is actually not correct. Debt should be based on the economic prospective of real economic performance rather than the bubble in the market finansil, especially by protecting this fragile thing on the hedging insurance Credit Default Swap (CDS) which was speculative and high risk, like the case of subprime mortgages and later Greek to derivatived again in several levels to form a giant building, but have the fundamentals that very fragile (fragile underlying sectoral economy).

         Hence if the sector and the country can not afford to pay (default), there will be turmoil beliefs that cause capital outflow by selling all the securities the CDS and derivativenya and there was catastrophic. Automatic, companies and countries should yield (yield) is higher for the market to buy and finally getting choked with the mounting debt. It is also likely to be experienced by Americans with a huge debt in the future, let alone the still fragile economic conditions and the defeat of his rivalry with China in the global economic level. Development planners and economists often fail to see the insights and visionary of the possibility of external shocks to a country where economic actors and governments are unable to manage the company and his country well and correctly in order to produce something outcome (trickle down effect), value added and multiplier effect of continually increasing welfare. But it only benefits a few people in the world of business and government, in the form of the rampant levels of corruption to the whole economic system and governance, economic rent, mark-up businesses and projects, manipulation and white collar crime banking, private companies and state-owned monopoly. 

          But the most important and crucial is the lack of visionary power, lack of professionalism and incompetence in managing private debt and the state with the capital structure is highly skewed with a range of capital is only 50-20% with a portion of debt 80-95% and credit risk management and business and crisis management are less reliable to drown out the more powerful economic crisis.

Foot Note : 

This is shorterm and longterm fluctuation which will be happen in naturally that drive by mood and psychological global mass to take trading positions in crowded market. But if there are a very urgent fundamental data or news, the fluctuation in graphic maybe happen in turbulence fluctuation move up or move down more than shorter forecasting.  And a part of big fluctuation dynamic on biorhythmic and biocycle in midterm and longterm cycle. So you may not being only Globalize with Internet but now you must be have vision as GALAXIZATION with GALAXINET    

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life (certainty) rather than uncertainty (uncertainty) "who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly. 

Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and 


Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521 
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top

Untuk dalam bahasa Indonesia kunjungi blog ini : 
3. dan menu blog lainnya.  

Why Lehman Brothers is not realized the Risk of Sub Prime Mortgages and its Derivatives to make a Tsunami Financial ?

By : Edmond F. La’lang


Risk Management

         Everyone recognizes that the U.S. is the temperature of risk management as banking and insurance industries. But that kept sticking financial tsunami of commercial banks, investment banks and insurance which raises the question naughty: where the role of risk management unit?
There are several risk management functions:

1). “Risk management is able to provide information and perspective to the management about all the risk profile, a fundamental change of product and market, business environment and the necessary changes in the risk management process”

         In my opinion, this is a process of "validation and analysis of accurate data and appropriate" means if properly applied science of risk management has been able to answer correctly all the symptoms of symptoms of risk that will happen in the market. Because as it is known that Alan Greenspan himself realized that the existing risk analysis will never find the model and analysis to anticipate the risk, when and the magnitude of risk. Because of monetary economics and is currently unable to predict the accuracy of macroeconomic parameters, such as growth rate, risk rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and some other rate in the time series and changes in business environment and economics. That is why the economy is full of assumptions and calculations of complicated mathematical linear unable to accurately predict the magnitude and time changes in macroeconomic parameters. And how can one perform an appropriate and proper planning if only to revise various macro-economic assumptions, where the assumption is not necessarily true. It certainly would make the rate of economic development and business are also irreversible and not smooth so that helped spur the emergence of turbulence distrust due to "wrong predictions" with one result that is not to anticipate the emergence of systemic risk, especially risk subprime mortgages in the U.S. domestic market as well as around the world which has been closely intertwined.

2). “Risk management is able to convey the central issues of risk management policy formulation and its review”.

         As mentioned above, how can management determine the appropriate policy formulation and accurate predictions, so it will not happen revisionists and trial and error patterns that are inefficient and ineffective in planning business strategies for investing in various sectors. Lehman Brothers Inc.. will also not be able to predict the vulnerability of subprime borrowers and weakening U.S. economy is fundamentally and structurally since 2001 due to competition with Chinese and Japanese products in its domestic market. The same thing happened on the economic team in the country and spur economic rate of private businesses are right on target as set out in the draft budget each year. This makes the progress of business and the economy is distorted by random and produce micro and macro business calculations that are not exactly referring to macro-economic assumptions. Thus can not be expected that the current risk management models can provide a central issue and fokusing to formulate risk management policies and rivewnya correctly on the macro and micro turbulensis and full of fierce competition.

3). “Risk management is able to calculate and measure the amount of risk exposure”.
         I think that even if the existing risk management but will not be able to count on target with accuracy and speed can follow the rhythm of economic activity of business, if only based on linear econometric calculations, which at one time there risk of failure (fatigue in aircraft engines) will not be detected with good to be anticipated with the method of "early warning system" in order to reduce the risk of greater losses, due to the global turbulence.

4). “Risk management is able to determine allocation of funds as well-2 with a more appropriate risk limits”.
       In my opinion that is okay, because risk management can properly share risk appropriately with the allocation of funds in various investment instruments. But if management risk insurance model to be used reduce/eliminate the risk with derivatives "Credit Default Swap" certainly will always cause systemic risk in the event of a failure (default) on the system such as sub-prime, where credit risk diderivatif even more, yes even more create a greater risk finansil although according to the econometric calculations can be spread but instead give a greater effect due to earthquakes are interrelated and form a giant building construction vulnerable to external shocks in the foundations of lower middle class borrowers are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.

     .. This is one of the biggest mistakes of risk management that in order to minimize the risk is to divide and spread the risk to be shared is not heavy, like an insurance model, yes it is true does not felt, but if there is failure in the basement and then slowly pillars will give effect to "the WTC disaster the upper and middle like a red-hot stock and banking ", so in quick time as well as perpetrators of subprime giant building giant banking, investment banking and insurance giant hill is like a chunk of land that slides down due to gravity and also cause the victim under it like small country and the real sector which is already have declined slowly in accordance biorhytmic or decade cycle. So, "we do not fight the Natural Law"!

         This has been my worried since Governor FED, Alan Greenspan to cut rates aggressively from 5.75% (2001) to 1.0% (2003) that would have the effect of low interest rates on business activities, in particular properties that will take credit blindly without even knowing the risk of future that once diderivatif tiered (10 levels) by the Investment banking and insurance, and wearing these cheap funds into the way of "Carry Trade" to be invested in countries that have high interest rates rather than to the real sector to support economic growth quality .. But that's one reason from God to restore U.S. economic bubble and the world to go back to basics so that people do not aggressively grow irrationally. Then there will be a chain reaction with high-speed collision so as to form an atomic bomb explosion in all directions and took the lives of so many in various lines and the surrounding region or similar cases of "Tsunami Aceh", the collapse of an old building has been fitted with a variety of detonators to the pillar- Its main pillars and detonated simultaneously would quickly collapse or a mass of land with steep slopes without trees bare soil binder will easily collapse or erosion by water saturation of the mass with the gravitational force (weight) will collapse and collapse and many casualties. So not only we need to conserve agricultural land as a place of culture, but also good financial conservation in the business of stocks, bonds, forex, commodities and real terms.

5).”Risk management is also able to avoid excessive portfolio concentration”.
         In my opinion, this is pretty good, but not yet know precisely the intrinsic of each portfolio, how their performance in space and time (time series), depending on the development and progress as well as risks that may exist and occur from each portfolio to be invested. Yes definitely do not put most of the eggs (funds) on a basket of sub-prime mortgages. So must be selected basketball portfolio with low risk according to the strains of bio-rhythmic time monthly (monthly) and annual (yearly) and not based on mathematical calculations and linear statistics are often wrong and inaccurate in predicting the presence of systemic risk and volatility of external risk.

6). “Risk management is able to create adequate reserves to anticipate the risks that have been measured and calculated”.

         I think not too useful, because by knowing the risk of ups and downs of business conditions, we can accurately and quickly perform "strategy in and out" effectively and efficiently. If the market is bullish and the pros-perspective, we can do the strategy in an effective and if the market is bearish and turbu-lencies, we can efficiently avoid the potential risk of loss exists. This is the problem not being able to predict in a timely and correct, in addition to confidence factors to reduce risk strategy derivative model that precisely incorrect and adversely impacted. Reserves are necessary but do not overdo it because there will be a waste without a high value added. Reserves needed to cover possible risks that would arise in the future. For that there is need for penyeselarasan with the calculation of risk in point 5 above.

7) “risk management which is able to avoid the potential loss is relatively higher.
        We do not know what the risk management unit and a year's time is not a short time to perform preventive efforts in addressing the potential risks to the eye:.

         In my opinion, Lehman was too confident with the risk management of derivatives to eliminate the risk insurance model in which all policyholders will bear the risks that may occur in part or individual member of the policy holders are clearly not closely related to systemic risk derivatives storey building 10. Finally, the holders of subprime investments and derivatives that must bear the risk of loss and not all the policy holders, this is a fatal error method. Probably too late for Lehman and wrong in the calculation of the worst possible scenario (pessimistic scenario).

       Lehman suffered liquidity risk (liquidity risk) and market risk that certainly occurs in the form of withdrawal of funds in a rush, so that the liquidity drought and the risk of volatile markets on investor panic and loss on the value of its shares on the stock market dropped drastically to be sold to cover losses on subprime. This is why Lehman was not able to meet its obligations (of default and loss of customer complaints), which is then extended to all lines of business of Lehman. Also, concentration risk because most are in one basket portfolio of subprime mortgages. Really do not put eggs in one basket.

 Foot Note : 

This is shorterm and longterm fluctuation which will be happen in naturally that drive by mood and psychological global mass to take trading positions in crowded market. But if there are a very urgent fundamental data or news, the fluctuation in graphic maybe happen in turbulence fluctuation move up or move down more than shorter forecasting.  And a part of big fluctuation dynamic on biorhythmic and biocycle in midterm and longterm cycle. So you may not being only Globalize with Internet but now you must be have vision as GALAXIZATION with GALAXINET    

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life (certainty) rather than uncertainty (uncertainty) "who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.  


Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521 
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top

Untuk dalam bahasa Indonesia kunjungi blog ini : 
3. dan menu blog lainnya.