Selasa, 13 Maret 2012

Monetary - Fiscal Policy and its Implication in anticipation of and Reduce the Economic Crisis 1997 - 1998 in Indonesia

By : Edmond F. La'lang

         Many passengers on the ship in this panic turned out to look for opportunities in the narrowness. So for us to survive against all external shocks in this globalization era is the vision, thought, concept and behavior of complex biological to solve various complex problems of internal and external conditions. This shock may be the emergence of global investor distrust of the management and conduct of business and government that no longer in accordance with the principles of economics and management, business administration (Good Corporate Governance and Clean Government) which raises the number of moral hazard, fraud and mismanagement of other well technological surprises many kinds of products of goods, services and culture. So when the crisis emerged in the form of monetary and economic crisis of confidence in business management, economics and government, the foreign investors in the money market, stock and real sector rollicking leave the country in a position to remove its currency with hard currency, panic selling in the market capital, attract all current accounts and deposits in the banking and securities, and closed the factory that ends "Capital Flight" massive. 

         This is what we know as the "Impact of Systemic Crisis", in which nearly all the real financial and business institutions will be affected by a large and heavy, so that the economic system, business and finansil will experience a severe contraction that causes severe turbulence and crisis, causing economic growth to be negative. It also looks at Japan in crisis and long-term deflation and also in 2007/2008 in the USA (the sub-prime mortgages) and European (Greek case almost by default). Only developed countries do not use the services of the IMF in debt, but issued a number of government securities in various forms to make bailout package, stimulus, quantitative easing and aggressive Also cut rates again to stimulate economic growth, thereby becoming a heavy burden and must state borne by the next generation, like the case of the banking bailout Rp. 650 Trillion like in Indonesia (1997-1998).

         So let us manage the state finances in a more healthy and appropriate corporate capital structure with strong economic management, sound business, creative, innovative, efficient and effective in promoting the country as well as companies to avoid moral hazard, fraud, ignorance, carelessness, negligence and greed in managing the economy and state finances and business. Do not want big fast, but full fat is fat, sluggish and unhealthy that produce low competitiveness, the fragility of the financial structure and poor economic performance and vulnerability to internal and external economic shocks. This is what should be a benchmark for economic fundamentals and not merely macroeconomic indicators of economic planners often make more confident and ultimately much owed by only based on DSR to GDP ratio and the amount of deficit to GDP is actually not correct. Debt should be based on the economic prospective of real economic performance rather than the bubble in the market finansil, especially by protecting this fragile thing on the hedging insurance Credit Default Swap (CDS) which was speculative and high risk, like the case of subprime mortgages and later Greek to derivatived again in several levels to form a giant building, but have the fundamentals that very fragile (fragile underlying sectoral economy).

         Hence if the sector and the country can not afford to pay (default), there will be turmoil beliefs that cause capital outflow by selling all the securities the CDS and derivativenya and there was catastrophic. Automatic, companies and countries should yield (yield) is higher for the market to buy and finally getting choked with the mounting debt. It is also likely to be experienced by Americans with a huge debt in the future, let alone the still fragile economic conditions and the defeat of his rivalry with China in the global economic level. Development planners and economists often fail to see the insights and visionary of the possibility of external shocks to a country where economic actors and governments are unable to manage the company and his country well and correctly in order to produce something outcome (trickle down effect), value added and multiplier effect of continually increasing welfare. But it only benefits a few people in the world of business and government, in the form of the rampant levels of corruption to the whole economic system and governance, economic rent, mark-up businesses and projects, manipulation and white collar crime banking, private companies and state-owned monopoly. 

          But the most important and crucial is the lack of visionary power, lack of professionalism and incompetence in managing private debt and the state with the capital structure is highly skewed with a range of capital is only 50-20% with a portion of debt 80-95% and credit risk management and business and crisis management are less reliable to drown out the more powerful economic crisis.

Foot Note : 

This is shorterm and longterm fluctuation which will be happen in naturally that drive by mood and psychological global mass to take trading positions in crowded market. But if there are a very urgent fundamental data or news, the fluctuation in graphic maybe happen in turbulence fluctuation move up or move down more than shorter forecasting.  And a part of big fluctuation dynamic on biorhythmic and biocycle in midterm and longterm cycle. So you may not being only Globalize with Internet but now you must be have vision as GALAXIZATION with GALAXINET    

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life (certainty) rather than uncertainty (uncertainty) "who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly. 

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